Will a heat pump beat your gas furnace?
Your home and system
Advanced assumptions
Your results
Annual heating bill
Cumulative net savings, years 0–10
| Year | Furnace | Heat pump | Savings | Cumulative | CO₂ avoided (t) |
|---|
Go deeper: heat pumps, gas and 2026 incentives
Methodology and sources
- Heating load (delivered heat) = floor area × heat-loss factor (0.14 / 0.20 / 0.26 Btu/h·°F per sq ft for tight / average / leaky homes) × 24 × annual heating degree days (base 65°F: Cold 6,500, Mid-Atlantic 4,500, South 2,000, Pacific Northwest 4,800). If you enter your heating therms, load = therms × AFUE ÷ 10 instead.
- Temperature bins: the load is spread over outdoor temperatures from −29°F to 63°F using a normal distribution of heating-season temperatures (zone mean 30 / 40 / 52 / 44°F) whose 1st percentile equals your design temperature, weighted by (65°F − temperature).
- Heat pump COP varies linearly from an estimated COP at 47°F (0.41 × HSPF2) to COP at 5°F (0.205 × HSPF2), roughly reproducing HSPF2 ÷ 3.412 as the seasonal COP in a Region IV climate. Below −13°F the heat pump is assumed off: resistance strips (COP 1) in full mode, the furnace in dual-fuel mode.
- Dual-fuel switchover is economic: the heat pump runs whenever its COP exceeds the break-even COP = electricity price × 29.307 ÷ (gas price ÷ AFUE), and the furnace covers colder hours.
- CO2: natural gas 11.7 lb CO2 per therm (EPA); electricity at the eGRID 2023 subregion CO2e rate for your zone (Cold RFCW 916, Mid-Atlantic RFCE 599, South SRSO 846, Pacific Northwest NWPP 635 lb/MWh; US average 771). Cooling, water heating and refrigerant leakage are not included.
- Payback = net installed cost ÷ year-1 savings. Net cost = gross cost − avoided replacement − §25C (if ticked) − HEAR rebate − other rebates.
| Incentive | Status for a 2026 installation | Source |
|---|---|---|
| §25C Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit | Ended. 30% up to $2,000 for heat pumps placed in service 1 Jan 2023 – 31 Dec 2025 only (One Big Beautiful Bill Act, July 2025). | IRS, Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit |
| HEAR / HEEHR heat pump rebate | Up to $8,000: 100% of cost below 80% AMI, 50% of cost at 80–150% AMI (states may set lower caps, e.g. Minnesota $4,000). Since DOE Program Notice 26-2 (29 May 2026), rebates cannot fund replacing fossil-fuel equipment; a heat pump qualifies in a gas-heated home only if the furnace stays in place, or when it replaces electric heat. Launch dates vary by state. | DOE Home Energy Rebates; USGBC (Jul 2026); MN Commerce (12 Oct 2026) |
| ENERGY STAR cold-climate heat pump | COP ≥ 1.75 at 5°F and ≥ 70% of rated 47°F heating capacity at 5°F; HSPF2 ≥ 8.1 (split systems). | ENERGY STAR heat pump key product criteria |
- Fuel prices: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and Winter Fuels Outlook (6 October 2026). 1,000 cubic feet of gas ≈ 10.37 therms.
- Results are screening estimates for planning, not a quote. A Manual J load calculation, your actual tariffs and your state energy office’s rebate rules are needed before you buy.
Sustainability Awakening · last checked 24 October 2026. All calculations run in your browser; nothing you enter is stored.
Frequently asked questions
Is a heat pump cheaper to run than a gas furnace in 2026?
It depends on the ratio of your electricity price to your gas price. A heat pump is cheaper whenever its seasonal COP beats the break-even COP, which is the electricity price times 29.3 divided by the gas price per therm divided by the furnace efficiency. At $0.17 per kWh and $1.45 per therm, that break-even is about 2.75 against an 80% furnace and 3.26 against a 95% furnace, so savings are thin in cold regions with cheap gas and large in milder regions, with a heat pump electricity rate, or when replacing electric baseboard heat.
Can I still claim the IRA Section 25C tax credit for a heat pump in 2026?
No. The Section 25C Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit of 30% of cost, up to $2,000 a year for heat pumps, only applies to property placed in service from 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2025. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of July 2025 ended it, so a heat pump installed in 2026 does not qualify. Systems installed by the end of 2025 are claimed on Form 5695 with the 2025 tax return.
How do HEAR heat pump rebates work after the 2026 DOE changes?
The state-run Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates (HEAR, also called HEEHR) pay up to $8,000 for a heat pump: 100% of cost for households below 80% of area median income and 50% of cost between 80% and 150%, and some states set lower caps. Since DOE Program Notice 26-2 of 29 May 2026, rebates can no longer fund replacing gas equipment, so a gas-heated home qualifies only if the furnace stays in place as dual-fuel backup. Programs launch state by state, so check your state energy office first.
What is a good payback period for a heat pump?
Simple payback is the net installed cost after rebates, minus any furnace or air conditioner replacement you avoid, divided by the first-year saving on your heating bill. Heat pumps typically last about 15 years, so a payback under 10 years is a good result. Payback is fastest when you replace electric baseboard heat, when your old furnace or AC is due for replacement anyway, or when you qualify for a HEAR rebate.